How Delphi came to be.
A record of what was built, fixed, and refined. From a first simple version to an oracle that synthesizes prediction markets, polling data, sports odds, news, and streaming signals into a single confident voice.
Phase 1: Foundation
Delphi goes live
The first version of Delphi went live, answering questions with live prices from Kalshi, the prediction market exchange.
Infrastructure
Domain setup: oracleofdelphi.app
Delphi now lives at oracleofdelphi.app.
Infrastructure
Faster answers from many sources at once
Delphi checks Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, sports odds and the news feeds at the same time, so a slow source does not hold up your answer.
Performance
Quicker market discovery
Delphi keeps a ready list of open Kalshi markets, so finding the markets behind your question is quick.
Performance
Data
Phase 2: The Oracle Voice
A sage's voice
Delphi answers as an oracle, not an analyst: a short, plain answer in a calm voice, with the chance of an outcome put into everyday words.
Voice
Sources weighed sensibly
Answers lean first on what people with money at stake collectively expect, use sports odds as confirmation, use the news to explain why, and treat search trends as background. Delphi checks whether its sources agree before it answers, and when polling and markets disagree, the answer says so.
Voice
Answers speak from what is true now
When the news has moved ahead of the markets, the answer speaks from the latest facts instead of recounting older estimates.
Voice
Answers when the picture is incomplete
When the picture is still forming, Delphi gives its best read of what can be seen and notes what is still taking shape, instead of declining to answer.
Fix
Voice
No assumptions about who holds power
Delphi no longer assumes which party currently controls Congress. It speaks of who is expected to control a chamber unless a news headline confirms who holds it now.
Fix
Voice
Phase 3: Sports Reasoning
Better championship and finals answers
Championship questions now treat a finals as a contest between only the two teams in it. If one conference champion is confirmed while the other series is still being played, Delphi names the confirmed finalist and looks ahead to the likely matchup.
Voice
Spotting who has clinched
Delphi reads headlines for who has clinched a series, and when headlines are silent but every finals market features the same team, it treats that team as the finalist.
Data
Who performs where
Questions about who will perform at a venue are answered as a list of likely performers, not a single winner.
Voice
Tournament winners, team by team
For the World Cup, the NBA Finals and other tournaments, Delphi now looks up odds for each country or team directly instead of estimating from broader groups.
Data
Phase 4: Data Pipeline
Every option in a "who will" question
Questions with many possible answers now show each named option, such as several artists, ranked by likelihood, instead of collapsing them into one. Up to ten options are shown.
Fix
Data
More relevant Polymarket results
Delphi is stricter about which Polymarket markets it shows, so a question about a halftime show no longer returns hockey championship markets.
Fix
Data
Music and pop culture signals
Questions about music and pop culture now draw on artist momentum from Spotify, lyrics activity from Genius, and public attention from Google Trends.
Data
Polling on political questions
Political questions now bring in polling averages for the race, listed by candidate. Polling now comes from VoteHub.
Data
Smarter searching
Delphi picks more specific search terms from your question, so the markets it finds are more closely related to what you asked.
Data
Better news context
Answers draw on more news, with duplicate copies of the same story removed and longer summaries so key details are not cut off. Music questions also look at recent news coverage.
Data
Phase 5: Performance
Faster answers
Slow sources no longer hold up an answer, and the details for the best-matching markets now load side by side instead of one after another.
Performance
Only the sources that fit your question
Delphi now checks music sources only for music questions, general trends only for general-interest questions, and tournament odds only for tournament questions.
Performance
Phase 6: Interface
A new look
A dark background, the oracle eye as the logo, a rounded question box and softer, warmer text, with a gentle glow on the Live indicator.
UI
Suggested questions
The chat page offered tappable example questions built from live markets and checked for quality, so each one named a specific event with specific outcomes. (Retired: the suggestion chips were removed from the chat page.)
UI
Data
Send button works on phones
The send button now responds reliably to taps on phones, with a larger tap target.
Fix
UI
Header logo navigates home
Clicking the oracle eye logo or Delphi text returns to the home screen.
UI
Favicon
The browser tab shows Delphi's oracle eye, a purple square with the eye in warm white.
UI
Changelog page
This page. A record of what was built, fixed, and refined, updated with each meaningful release.
UI
Phase 7: The Feed
Five-category live feed
A live feed with tabs for Sports, Politics, Finance, Entertainment, and Science and Tech, each built from its own topics and sources. The feed now lives on the home page.
UI
Data
Politics feed
Covers the 2026 midterm cycle: Senate races, House control, presidential approval, the Supreme Court, immigration and shutdown risk, drawing on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold. A topic appears only when enough markets cover it.
Data
Finance feed
Covers Fed decisions, inflation, unemployment, the S&P 500, Bitcoin and Treasury yields, with current figures from FRED for mortgage rates, the fed funds rate, the 10-year yield, CPI and unemployment alongside market prices.
Data
Entertainment and Science and Tech feeds
Entertainment covers awards and charts such as the Grammys, the Oscars, the Emmys, the Billboard Hot 100 and Coachella. Science and Tech covers AI labs, SpaceX launches, FDA approvals and tech IPOs.
Data
Only related markets count
Feed topics now ignore unrelated markets, so each story is built from markets that are actually about it. Answer-option markets such as Approve still count when their parent event is about the topic.
Fix
Data
Manifold results restored
Questions draw on Manifold markets again, after a bug had been leaving them out.
Fix
Data
Safer feed summaries
Feed cards are checked before they are shown. A card is dropped rather than published if its summary names people or titles that are not in its markets, and summaries are checked against what the markets show.
Fix
Voice
Fewer stale or past-dated cards
Feed markets whose resolution date has passed are left out, and summaries that refer to a past year are rewritten or dropped.
Fix
Data
Game dates on sports cards
NBA and NHL cards show the game date, so tonight's game is not confused with the series as a whole. Times are shown in US Eastern.
UI
Fix
Gentle motion on the feed
The feed had subtle movement: the eye logo slowly breathes, a faint background drifts, and cards occasionally catch a soft highlight.
UI
Phase 8: Elections
Midterm election pages
A new Elections page lists the 2026 Senate, Governor and House races with current prices. Each race opens to its own page with a price history chart.
UI
Data
Races tracked automatically
Senate, Governor and House races are found automatically from Kalshi listings, so new races usually show up on their own.
Data
Polling averages beside the prices
Race pages show polling averages next to market prices. Polling data comes from VoteHub, licensed CC BY 4.0, and is credited on the page.
Data
Each poll counted once
A survey that appears more than once in the polling data is now counted a single time in the average.
Fix
Data
Pick a candidate to chart
On a two-candidate race you can chart the Democrat, the Republican, or both.
UI
Elections get their own tab
The feed now has an Elections tab, separate from Politics.
UI
Volume shown in the right unit
Kalshi volume is shown as contract counts and Polymarket volume in dollars, so the numbers are no longer mislabeled.
Fix
UI
Easier navigation
Every page links back home, and race, market and journey pages show a breadcrumb trail.
UI
Cleaner journey charts
Labels on journey charts no longer overlap or get clipped.
UI
Fix
Phase 9: Trust and Reliability
Resolved contracts read as resolved
A contract that has already settled Yes now shows as resolved, not as a live price. Contracts that closed without a result no longer show a placeholder 50%.
Fix
Data
Answers use fresh headlines
Answers draw on recent headlines from major news outlets, refreshed every 30 minutes.
Data
Voice
Answers stick to their sources
Added checks that catch invented percentages and odds, so answers stay tied to the linked markets and headlines. Answers can still be wrong, so verify against the linked markets.
Voice
Too close to call, decided by the numbers
When the top two outcomes are within a few points, the answer says it is too close to call instead of picking one.
Voice
Who leaves next keeps its leaders
A who-leaves-next market now keeps its leading contenders, even when the same people also appear in another market.
Fix
Data
A plain message instead of a guess
When Delphi cannot put together a reliable answer, it says so and points you to the related markets instead of guessing.
Fix
Voice
About page and a clear disclaimer
An About page explains where the data comes from and what Delphi stores. Every page notes that Delphi is not financial advice.
UI
Quick pages when it is busy
Election pages reuse a recent copy, so they stay quick when many people visit.
Performance
Phase 10: Focus
A feed focused on reliable coverage
The feed now focuses on the categories where coverage is reliable: Sports, Politics, Elections, Finance and Science. Entertainment is paused while we focus on the midterms.
UI
Data
Clearer stories on the home page
A story shows how it traveled only when its market actually moved, and the headline now matches the article behind it. The outlets covering a story are listed together, and busy markets are described as heavily traded.
UI
Fuller price history for both candidates on election charts
Election charts now show a candidate's full price history, not just the days since we started tracking it. A candidate whose contract was listed later says when its history starts.
Data
UI
The feed lives on the home page
The separate feed page has been retired. The live feed is the home page, and the old feed address takes you there.
UI
Ask the oracle from the home page
The home page now opens with a box to ask the oracle a question, with example questions you can tap. The live feed stays right below, and Ask, Feed, Elections and About are one tap away.
UI
Suggestion chips retired
The suggestion chips that used to appear on the chat page have been removed.
UI
Home page headlines and sources now link out
Each story's headline opens the article it comes from. The sources count opens a short list of the outlets and their articles, and the market line opens that market's page.
UI
Unexplained moves on the market dashboard
The attention list is now called Unexplained moves. A market is listed only when it moved at least 5 points in the last day and no matching headline was found, and the row says how far it moved. Every row links to its market page, and any headlines found are linked.
UI
Optional partisan polls on race pages
On a race with no other polling, a switch on the race page can show polls released by campaigns or flagged as partisan. It is off by default, each poll is labeled as partisan, with its sponsor shown when known, and these polls are never blended into an average.
UI
Data
Fresh starter questions in the Ask box
The Ask box now invites questions about an election, a Cabinet shake-up or a world event, with three new starter questions: who will win the Maine Senate election, who will leave Trump's Cabinet next, and whether there will be a ceasefire in Ukraine this year.
UI
Link previews when pages are shared
Shared links to Delphi pages now show a title, a short description and an image in apps such as LinkedIn, Slack and iMessage.
UI