About Delphi

Delphi shows what prediction markets and polls say about upcoming events, with the sources and the age of the data on screen.

What Delphi is

Delphi collects prices from prediction markets, polling averages and news headlines, and puts them side by side. You can ask a question in plain language, follow a market over time, and see the 2026 midterm races in one place. Written summaries are generated by an AI model (Anthropic's Claude) from the data on the page, and they can be wrong.

What the numbers mean

A prediction market price is what traders are currently paying for a contract that pays $1 if something happens. It is a market-implied probability. It is not a forecast made by Delphi, and it is not a guarantee. Where Delphi shows a combined figure across several markets, it is calculated from the market prices shown and is labelled as such. Thin markets can move on a handful of trades, and the pages say when a market is thin.

Delphi is not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or bet on anything.

Where the data comes from

• Kalshi: market prices and event details for US prediction markets.
• Polymarket: market prices, search and price history.
• Manifold Markets and Metaculus: community forecasts, shown in chat answers. Manifold uses play money.
• Prediction Hunt: a cross-platform prediction market aggregator, used for consensus and feed topics.
• VoteHub: polling data, credited below.
• The Odds API: sportsbook odds, used for sports questions.
• News: headlines from public RSS feeds of news organizations (for example NYT, NPR, Politico, The Guardian and The Hill), stored by Delphi and refreshed every 30 minutes.
• Google Trends (through SerpApi), FRED (Federal Reserve economic data), Spotify and Genius: extra context for the questions they fit.
• Anthropic (Claude): reads the data above to rank, summarize and classify it.

What we store

• When you ask a question in chat, we store the question text, the answer, the data used to answer it, how long it took, automatic quality flags, and a thumbs up or down if you give one. When a question uses a Google Trends search, the search text (first 500 characters) is stored in a usage log.
• That text is removed after 30 days.
• We do not write IP addresses to our database. To limit abuse, the app briefly keeps request counts per IP address in memory (at most about an hour), and the app's own logs record only a short hashed form of an address when a limit is hit. Our hosting provider may keep its own standard server logs, which we do not control.
• We do not set cookies, and we do not run analytics or advertising scripts. Your tracked topics, filters and display preferences are kept in your own browser storage on your device. While the chat page is open, it sends a tracked topic's question to our server to refresh it once that topic is more than an hour old.
• To answer a question, the question or search terms taken from it are sent to Anthropic and, depending on the topic, to Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, SerpApi, Spotify and Genius.
• The market detail page loads an icon stylesheet from cdnjs.cloudflare.com, so your browser contacts that content delivery network when you open it. No other page loads third-party scripts, fonts or styles.

Polling data credit

Polling data via VoteHub, licensed under CC BY 4.0. Polling averages and margins shown on Delphi are calculated by Delphi from those polls.